Serbia: Economic and Political Outline
Economic Indicators | Foreign Trade in Figures | Sources of General Economic Information | Political Outline
In the recent years, Serbia has benefited from very high growth rates, particularly thanks to the transportation, construction and financial services sectors. The country is a huge potential market, mainly because its domestic demand is dynamic and also because it is increasing its openness to trade and foreign investment.
The financial crisis has affected the Serbian economy. The government was forced to reduce its public expenses in order to limit the budgetary deficit to 3% of GDP. This measure has allowed the country to obtain a loan from IMF at the beginning of 2009 for an amount of EUR 3 billion. The European Investment Bank has also launched a supporting program for Serbia which aims at fighting the effects of the financial crisis and to bring the country closer to the European Union. An initial co-operation of EUR 250 million was signed in May 2009 to help financing investments for small and medium companies (SME) and priority projects through the channel of the National Bank of Serbia.
The trade balance has registered a marked deficit, imports being sustained by domestic demand while exports have remained low. The rate of unemployment, which is close to 20%, is one of the highest in Europe.
The Serbian economy has shown signs of a revival in 2010 with a GDP's growth of 1.5%. This growth should increase rapidly in 2011. In the mean time, the country has to face some challenges such as high inflation. The priority of the government remains to control and reduce inflation in 2011 and 2012 as well as the fight against unemployment which remains as one of the black spots of the country.
| Main Indicators | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 (e) | 2013 (e) |
| GDP (billions USD) | 40.14 | 38.01 | 46.44 | 49.01 | 52.52 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | -3.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.5 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 5,438 | 5,139 | 6,267 | 6,600 | 7,058 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 38.2 | 44.9 | 44.1 | 44.5 | 43.1 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 8.1 | 6.2 | 11.3e | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labor Force) | 17.4 | 19.6 | 20.5 | 20.6 | 19.5 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -2.86 | -2.75 | -3.57e | -4.38 | -4.55 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -7.1e | -7.2e | -7.7e | -8.7 | - |
Source: IMF - World Economic Outlook Database ; World Bank , Last Available Data
Note: (e) Estimated Data
The agricultural sector represents 15% of the country's national revenue. Serbia has significant quantities of coal, lead, zinc, copper and gold, but the lack of investment which has affected the mining sector for several years prevents the country's economy from benefiting from this wealth.
The industry sector is very outdated and in need of strong foreign investment. It contributes 20% to the country's GDP.
Services make up the main sector of activity, representing almost two thirds of Serbia's GDP.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 24.0 | 25.1 | 50.8 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 12.9 | 27.7 | 59.5 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | - | - | - |
Source: World Bank - Last Available Data.
| Monetary Indicators | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| Serbian Dinar (RSD) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 USD | 67.15 | 58.45 | 55.72 | 67.58 | 77.73 |
Source: World Bank - Last Available Data.
Distribution of Economic freedom in the world
Source: 2011 Index of Economic freedom, Heritage Foundation
See the Country Risk Analysis Provided By Ducroire.
Serbia is not yet fully open to foreign trade. The perspective of an association agreement with the European Union and the steady growth of the direct foreign investment inflows should, however, lead to an increase in the volume of foreign trade. Serbia's main customers are Bosnia-Herzegovina, Italy and Germany to whom it exports manufactured goods and foodstuffs. Exports of services are relatively low. Russia, Italy and Germany are Serbia's main suppliers. Serbia buys manufactured goods and hydrocarbons from them.
In the context of the international economic crisis, the deficit in foreign trade has reached more than EUR 9 billion in 2008-2009, which means an increase of 25% in relation to 2007.
Serbian products are hard to sell because they are of low quality compared to other European products and the trade balance will be again in deficit in 2011. The main export products are iron, steel, fruits, vegetables, clothing and cereals.
| Foreign Trade Indicators | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| Imports of Goods (million USD) | 13,172 | 19,164 | 24,331 | 16,056 | 16,730 |
| Exports of Goods (million USD) | 6,428 | 8,825 | 10,972 | 8,345 | 9,795 |
| Imports of Services (million USD) | 2,114 | 3,456 | 4,239 | 3,406 | 3,407 |
| Exports of Services (million USD) | 2,089 | 3,140 | 4,002 | 3,478 | 3,519 |
| Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) | 7.8 | 26.0 | 9.3 | -17.3 | -4.0 |
| Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) | 4.9 | 17.2 | 8.9 | -12.4 | -0.4 |
| Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 51.4 | 54.1 | 53.7 | 45.3 | 47.6 |
| Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 29.9 | 30.2 | 30.4 | 28.3 | 30.9 |
| Trade Balance (million USD) | - | -9,649 | -12,518 | -7,129 | -6,344 |
| Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) | - | -10,003 | -12,786 | -7,098 | -6,338 |
| Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) | 81.3 | 84.3 | 84.1 | 73.7 | 78.5 |
Source: WTO - World Trade Organization ; World Bank , Last Available Data
| Main Customers (% of Exports) |
2010 |
| Italy | 11.4% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 11.1% |
| Germany | 10.3% |
| Montenegro | 8.2% |
| Romania | 6.6% |
| Russia | 5.5% |
| Macedonia | 4.9% |
| Slovenia | 4.3% |
| Austria | 3.5% |
| Croatia | 3.1% |
| Hungary | 3.1% |
| France | 2.8% |
| Bulgaria | 2.5% |
| Ukraine | 2.0% |
| Greece | 1.9% |
| Slovakia | 1.8% |
| Netherlands | 1.6% |
| United Kingdom | 1.6% |
| Czech Republic | 1.4% |
| Belgium | 1.3% |
| See More Countries | 52.3% |
| Main Suppliers (% of Imports) |
2010 |
| Russia | 12.9% |
| Germany | 10.6% |
| Italy | 8.6% |
| China | 7.2% |
| Hungary | 4.8% |
| Romania | 3.6% |
| Bulgaria | 3.5% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3.3% |
| Austria | 3.1% |
| Slovenia | 3.0% |
| France | 2.9% |
| Croatia | 2.6% |
| Poland | 2.4% |
| Slovakia | 2.4% |
| Turkey | 1.9% |
| Czech Republic | 1.9% |
| Ukraine | 1.7% |
| Macedonia | 1.6% |
| United States | 1.5% |
| Netherlands | 1.5% |
| See More Countries | 56.0% |
Source: Comtrade, Last Available Data
Source: Comtrade, Last Available Data
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Last Updates: January 2012
